Investor brief · Fort St. John, BC · October 2026
Get paid to hold.
Professionally managed small multi-family where the rent pays the mortgage, at the source of Canada’s LNG build-out.
C$33BLNG Canada Phase 2, approved September 2026
2× · 3×BC’s new government on gas output by 2032 and 2035
16.4%10-year IRR, base case, on an illustrative C$150K purchase
The case in 60 seconds
Four reasons it earns a place in the plan
01 · The spread
The rent pays the mortgage
At a 7.1% cap rate, a well-bought suited duplex out-earns its mortgage by about 2% of price a year. A Vancouver rental falls about 1.1% short.
02 · The catch-up
A decade of lost appreciation
Since 2014 Fort St. John is up about 10% while Prince George nearly doubled. In 2026 it’s the only major northern market rising, at +7.1%.
03 · The catalyst
Capital and policy, aligned
C$33B LNG Canada Phase 2, approved in September and fast-tracked by Ottawa. BC’s new government campaigned on doubling gas production by 2032.
04 · The stewardship
My manager, my money
My eight Fort St. John doors are with Izon Realty, and my clients and I are a significant share of its 250+ doors. You get the same team and standard.
The catalyst
LNG Canada Phase 2: the decision is made
C$33BPhase 2, sanctioned Sept 28, 2026. Phase 1 was C$40B.
2×Export capacity, from 14 to 28 million tonnes a year
5New Coastal GasLink compressor stations, contract awarded Oct 19, 2026
C$22BShell’s purchase of ARC Resources, a major Montney producer, closed Sept 2026
Where the gas comes from
The Montney Formation holds about 449 Tcf of marketable gas, 271 Tcf of it in BC. It’s among the lowest-cost gas in North America, now with a direct route to Asian buyers through Kitimat.
What it is, and isn’t
The ~4,000 peak construction jobs are in Kitimat, not Fort St. John. The lasting effect upstream is the drilling, processing and pipeline work to fill a terminal twice the size.
Sources: LNG Canada · Prime Minister’s Office · TC Energy · Técnicas Reunidas · Shell · ARC Resources
The policy tailwind
Ottawa, Victoria and the capital, aligned
Ottawa
Fast-tracked
Named a national-interest project and sent to the Major Projects Office (Sept 2025). A Canada–BC–LNG Canada cooperation agreement set the path to a 2026 decision. The Prime Minister called Phase 2 the second-largest private investment in Canadian history.
Victoria
A pro-gas majority
BC Conservatives won 64 of 93 seats on Oct 24, 2026 (preliminary), pledging to double gas production by 2032 and triple it by 2035, with approvals in 120 days. Phase 2 advanced under the outgoing NDP government, so support crosses party lines.
The capital
Committed
Shell, PETRONAS, PetroChina, Mitsubishi and KOGAS took the final investment decision. TC Energy approved Coastal GasLink Phase 2. Shell closed its C$22B purchase of Montney producer ARC Resources.
Campaign promises are not yet policy. Phase 2 and the pipeline expansion were approved before the vote; the election mainly adds speed and certainty to Montney permits. Sources: PMO · NRCan · CityNews · BC Conservative platform · Reuters.
Why it lands in Fort St. John
The terminal is on the coast. The gas is under Fort St. John.
Upstream
Montney wells and gas plants
Drilling, processing and field services, run out of Fort St. John
Midstream
Coastal GasLink
670 km to the coast, capacity nearly doubling
Terminal
LNG Canada, Kitimat
Doubling to 28 million tonnes a year
Market
Asian buyers
Owners from Malaysia, China, Japan and Korea
Why the vote matters most here
Montney drilling, processing and pipeline permits are issued by the province. A government aiming to double gas output lands directly on the work based in Fort St. John.
What can break the link
Work camps, rotational crews and productivity gains can blunt local housing demand. That’s why every property must cash-flow on today’s rents, not on the boom.
The property chain is my investment thesis, not a published forecast.
The catch-up
Eleven years of lost appreciation, now turning
Average detached price change, 2014 → 2026
Why it stalled: the 2014–16 energy crash, LNG delays in 2016–17, Phase 1 construction landing on the coast, and the 2021–23 Blueberry River permit freeze.
+7.1%2026: the only major northern market up, on flat sales. An early signal, not proof.
0.84×Fort St. John’s price against Prince George’s, down from 1.5× in 2014
−21%Still below its 2015 high after inflation: about +5% nominal in eleven years
BC Northern Real Estate Board January–September averages; directional, not appraisals · Statistics Canada CPI.
The spread
In Vancouver the investor pays the mortgage. Here the tenant does.
City of Vancouver apartment~4.0% cap rate
4.0% net operating income
5.12% mortgage payments
−1.1% of price: about −C$580 a month on a C$620,000 purchase
Fort St. John suited duplex7.1% cap rate
7.14% net operating income
5.12% mortgage payments
+2.0% of price: about +C$1,040 a month before replacements (C$793 after)
Year 1, % of price · 80% loan · 5.0% · 30 years · Vancouver Q1 2026 cap rates 3.4–4.9% (Colliers).
Stewardship
Who runs it when you’re 800 km away?
The same firm I trust with my own money: Izon Realty Property Management, Fort St. John.
250+Doors under Izon’s management. My clients and I are a significant share of them.
~7 yrsBuilding the thesis, connections and systems behind this market
My portfolio
All three of my Fort St. John properties, eight doors, are with Izon. I read the same statements you will.
My clients
The investors I’ve placed in Fort St. John are with the same team, held to the same standard.
Your leverage
With my clients and me a significant share of Izon’s book, the properties I bring get attention a lone new owner can’t.
My oversight
A pro forma before purchase, actuals after, and an honest variance check on every property, mine included.
What Izon does on every property
Leasing. Multi-channel marketing, a pre-screened tenant waitlist, full credit and background checks, RTA-compliant tenancies and direct ties to local employers.
Asset protection. Regular inspections, documented move-in and move-out reports, contracted local trades, and pre-authorized limits so urgent repairs happen even when you’re away.
Reporting. Monthly owner statements, real-time accounting and work orders, and tax-ready year-end packages: the same reports I read on my own buildings.
Local team. A locally owned Fort St. John brokerage with licensed managers and full-time staff. Management fee: 10% of rent collected.
Real doors, real numbers
My Fort St. John properties, warts and all
| Property | Doors | DSCR | How it’s running |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fourplex | 4 | 1.82× | 88% of pro forma, after a placement fee and a heavier repair year |
| Suited duplex | 2 | 1.57× | Steady, close to plan |
| Suited duplex | 2 | 1.16× | Behind: a turnover and C$3,000 in placement fees this year. Stabilizing. |
| Fort St. John | 8 | — | All three cash-flow positive |
DSCR = net operating income ÷ mortgage payments, from 2026 Izon statements (cash basis, annualized) and lender statements. I’ll walk through the property-level dollar figures on a call.
83%of pro forma cash flow across my whole portfolio in 2026, with the second duplex the drag. I show the misses because a serious investor should expect them.
Context only: past results aren’t what a new investor should expect.
What C$150,000 does
One costed purchase, seven ways it could go
- Purchase, two units
- C$620,000
- Cash committed
- C$150,000
- Year-3 cash flow
- C$932 / mo
- Cash-on-cash · DSCR
- 7.45% · 1.45×
- Returned over 10 years
- C$548,000
- Multiple · IRR, base
- 3.65× · 16.4%
| Scenario | Year 3 / mo | 10-yr IRR |
|---|---|---|
| Outperform (my assessment) | C$1,040 | 19.0% |
| Re-rating to Prince George parity | C$932 | 17.9% |
| Base: values track inflation | C$932 | 16.4% |
| No rate relief or cap compression | C$932 | 14.4% |
| No appreciation | C$932 | 10.9% |
| Combined stress: 6% rate, 8% vacancy | C$483 | 6.7% |
| Severe downturn: about C$122K lost | −C$703 | −9.1% |
Illustrative model, not an available property or a forecast. 80% loan at 5.0%, renewing at 4.5%; 5.5% vacancy; 10% management; replacement allowance; 3.3% selling costs. Excludes a separate ~C$30,000 reserve. No probabilities assigned. Full model and method are in my Fort St. John Multi-Unit Investment Strategy report.
Deploying capital
What C$1M looks like, and how it gets placed
~C$150KCash committed per acquisition, plus a separate ~C$30K reserve
5–6Properties per C$1M, roughly 10–24 doors, near C$5,000 a month by Year 3 in the base case
7–9Financed properties one private owner can typically carry; past that, fourplexes, a second lender group or CMHC MLI Select
- 01
Strategy call
Your capital, timeline, return targets and ownership structure.
- 02
Capital plan
Buy box, sequencing and a financing path that scales past residential limits.
- 03
Sourcing
I write my own Fort St. John deals and run each through a six-point acquisition gate.
- 04
Onboarding with Izon
Inspection, tenant placement and reporting set up from day one.
- 05
Oversight and recycling
Statements checked against underwriting; equity recycled only at renewals, through the gates.
Illustrative, from the report’s model; actual results depend on the properties and financing.
The risks, stated plainly
What could go wrong
Concentration
One regional economy, energy-linked employers and tenants who may share them.
Policy and execution
Campaign pledges aren’t law. Sponsor schedules slip, and repealing DRIPA could add court fights.
Financing
Renewal rates aren’t guaranteed; markets expect up to four rate hikes in 2027.
Resale liquidity
A smaller buyer pool. Selling quickly may mean selling cheaply, so the plan assumes 10-year holds.
Treaty 8
The Blueberry River agreement caps new disturbance at about 750 ha a year. A DRIPA repeal doesn’t lift it.
Rent cap
BC caps increases on sitting tenants at 2.3% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027. Furnished suites turn over more often, so rent resets to market with each new lease.
The gate: every purchase must break even at a 6% rate and 8% vacancy on today’s rents, with no growth credit, before we buy.
Sources: BC Residential Tenancy Branch · BCNREB · Cassels (Blueberry River).
Next step
Capital to deploy? Let’s run your numbers.
A 30-minute call, Zoom or meeting: your capital, your timeline, your return targets, and a real Fort St. John property run against these rules. If it doesn’t fit, I’ll tell you.
- The rent pays the mortgageCap rates around 7%, against about 4% in Vancouver.
- The gas is hereC$33B LNG Canada Phase 2, approved September 2026, runs on Montney gas around Fort St. John.
- A decade behind, now turningUp about 10% since 2014 while its northern peers soared. Up 7.1% in 2026.
- Run by my own managerThe same local team that manages my eight doors.
The full report adds the model, all seven scenarios and my acquisition gate. Ask and I’ll send it.
Eric Coulombe · Real Estate Advisor · Engel & Völkers Vancouver · Licensed since 2003 · Active in Fort St. John for almost 7 years · 604-764-8620 (call, text or WhatsApp)
Notes and sources
Model, scenarios and spread: Eric Coulombe, Fort St. John Multi-Unit Investment Strategy (Oct 2026). Illustrative C$620,000 purchase; pre-tax; not a forecast, appraisal or lender quote.
My properties: 2026 Izon Realty owner statements (cash basis, annualized) and Sept 30, 2026 lender statements. Context only; not audited investor returns.
Prices: BC Northern Real Estate Board January–September averages, 2014–2026; Statistics Canada CPI. LNG and pipeline: LNG Canada and Prime Minister’s Office (Sept 29, 2026); TC Energy; Técnicas Reunidas; Shell and ARC Resources; Natural Resources Canada (May 14, 2026). Election and platform: CityNews, Reuters and Argus (Oct 25–26, 2026, preliminary results); BC Conservative energy platform. Rules and risks: BC Residential Tenancy Branch; Cassels (Blueberry River agreement); Montney resource estimate from NEB, BC and AER (2013).
For education and discussion only; not individualized financial, legal or tax advice. This describes direct property ownership, not a pooled investment or securities offering. Past performance does not predict future results. Cash flow can be negative and capital can be lost. Obtain property-specific due diligence and independent advice.
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