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Vancouver market report · October 2026 update

The Split Market

Vancouver's market has split by property type. Prices are easing slowly, and the floor is further away than it looked earlier this year.

Prepared by Eric Coulombe, Real Estate Advisor · Engel & Völkers Vancouver

Detached Sales +4.2% Apartments Sales −18.6% September 2026 vs. a year earlier
$1,075,900Composite benchmark, Sept. 2026
−0.5%/moRoughly how fast prices are drifting
35%Odds of a deeper correction, up from 30% this spring

In brief · Updated Oct. 28, 2026

One rate hike. Three very different markets.

The Bank of Canada raised its rate on Oct. 28 and says more increases may be needed. Prices across Metro Vancouver are easing about half a percent a month, but how much this matters depends on what you own or want to buy. Find your segment below.

Bank of Canada rate

2.50%▲ 0.25 on Oct. 28
2.25% for a year Oct. 2025 Oct. 28, 2026

Detached

$1,784,700Typical price · −7.3% in a year

Sales vs. last year +4.2%

Rate exposure Low

Buyers are mostly owners with equity. Higher rates sting least here, which is why sales are up.

Next two years: −6% to −14%*

More on detached →

Townhomes

$1,016,700Typical price · −4.7% in a year

Sales vs. last year +0.6%

Rate exposure Medium

Family buyers who often stretch to qualify. Almost no new supply is coming, which helps hold prices.

Next two years: −5% to −12%*

More on townhomes →

Condos

$682,500Typical price · −6.2% in a year

Sales vs. last year −18.6%

Rate exposure High

First-time buyers now set prices at the edge of what they can borrow. Each hike lowers what they can pay.

Next two years: −10% to −18%*

More on condos →

Most likely path for the whole market: a slow grind, then a floor, probably late 2027 to 2028. *Our ranges, after inflation. Rate exposure is our read of how sensitive each segment's buyers are to borrowing costs.

Read the full report ↓What it means for you

The verdict

The split is holding. The backdrop got rougher.

Since spring 2026, our view has been that Vancouver is a split market: no crash, no boom, and very different outcomes by property type. That view has held up. What changed is the weather around it: inflation jumped on an oil shock, the Bank of Canada raised rates on Oct. 28 and says it may need to go further, B.C.'s population is shrinking and investors have left the condo market. Prices are drifting down about half a percent a month across every segment. A slow bleed, not a collapse, but the bottom is further out than many sellers hope.

1 · The destination barely moved

Our long-run price ranges are close to where we set them in spring. Prices have simply travelled part of the way there.

2 · The odds tilted rougher

We now give a deeper correction 35% odds (30% in spring), a recovery 15% (from 20%), and a slow grind 50%.

3 · Investors no longer price condos

At today's rates a typical rented condo earns less than a government bond. End users now set the price.

4 · Time does the rest

With inflation running at 2.5% to 3%, a few flat years is itself a real correction. Most of what's left will come quietly.

What's changed since spring

Same thesis, harder conditions

FactorSpring 2026October 2026
Bank of Canada rate2.25%, cuts possible2.50%, raised on Oct. 28; the Bank says further increases may be needed
InflationNear target3.1% in September, driven by gasoline (+27.8%). Excluding gasoline, 2.2%
Big-bank 5-year fixed mortgageAbout 4.5%About 5.0%
Metro Vancouver composite benchmark$1.098M$1,075,900
Composite price, year over year−6.9%−5.5%
Apartment sales, year over year−10.7%−18.6%
Vancouver unemploymentNot tracked6.5%; B.C. lost 20,000 jobs in September
B.C. populationSlowingShrinking, as temporary residents leave
Asking rentsFallingFalling more slowly; firming in recent months

The smaller year-over-year price decline is not a recovery. Prices fell every month; they're just being compared with an already lower base.

Checking our spring calls

Three held. Two didn't.

Earlier this year we made five calls about where the market was heading. Here is how each has held up. Updating a forecast when the facts change is the point of having one.

Held

Condos would stay weakest

Apartment sales are down 18.6% from last September while detached sales are up 4.2%.

Held

No crash

Prices are drifting, not breaking. The composite fell 0.6% in September.

Held, harder than expected

The replacement-cost floor would show up as a supply shutdown

It has. New condo presales have nearly stopped.

Missed

Detached would stabilise first

Not yet. Detached sales held up, but detached prices are down about as much as condos this year. Every segment is down roughly 3% since January.

Missed

Rates would be a tailwind

They turned into a headwind. The question moved from "when do cuts come" to "how many hikes."

The split, in one chart

Buyers are splitting. Prices haven't yet.

Detached and townhome buyers are mostly end users with equity. Condo buyers are first-timers and, until recently, investors. They face different rates, different floors and now very different volumes.

September sales vs. a year earlier

Detached
+4.2%
Townhome
+0.6%
Apartment
−18.6%
All homes
−8.4%
−20%0+20%

Total sales were 25% below the 10-year September average. Active listings, 16,394, were 24% above it.

Benchmark prices, September 2026

SegmentBenchmarkvs. yearListings selling
Composite$1,075,900−5.5%10.9%
Detached$1,784,700−7.3%9.7%
Townhome$1,016,700−4.7%12.2%
Apartment$682,500−6.2%11.4%

Below about 12% of listings selling is generally read as a buyer's market. The composite is about 14% below its April 2022 peak of $1,252,800.

Detached · real resilience, not immunity

End users are still buying, and sales are up. But only 9.7% of listings sold, the weakest of any segment. Buyers have choice and are using it.

Townhomes · the most balanced

Bought for life stage, not yield. July's few new launches were all townhomes, and about half those units sold in the first month. Still rate-sensitive: many buyers stretch to qualify.

Condos · every pressure at once

Higher rates, soft rents, record unsold new inventory and almost no investor demand. 11.4% below the October 2023 peak. Apartments are about half of all sales, so this segment drags the whole market's numbers.

Coulombe View

01

Detached and investor condos are no longer moving through the same market cycle. They are priced by different buyers, under different financing conditions, with different floors.

Since spring, the gap in buyer activity has widened. Applying one verdict to every property still gets it wrong twice: too bearish on land-rich homes, too forgiving on yield-dependent condos.

The framework

Four valuation anchors, one question each

No single measure tells the whole story. Use all four, then decide which one matters most for the property in front of you.

Income

How many years of household income a typical home costs.

Price-to-rent

Whether rent supports the price, or only the hope of future gains.

Replacement cost

What it costs to build new. When resale falls below it, building stops.

Peer cities

How other expensive global cities have behaved in the same conditions.

Anchor 1 · Income

10.8×→ about 10×

Demographia's 2026 survey puts Vancouver's median multiple at 10.8, ranked 92nd of 96 markets. Anything above 5.0 is "severely unaffordable." Our rough update, with prices about 5% lower and incomes about 3% higher since the survey period, puts it near 10 today. Improving, slowly.

What income tells us, and what it doesn't

Still far from normal. Local wages alone don't carry these prices. Equity, family help and very high incomes do much of the work.

Poor at timing. Vancouver has looked stretched on this measure for more than a decade. It tells you how far the market is from normal, not when or whether it gets there.

Coulombe View

02

Vancouver has not been a local-income market for years. Income caps optimism, but it does not hand you a crash target.

Bulls use the long run of unaffordability to dismiss income entirely. Bears treat the same number as if it must force an immediate return to normal. The move from 11.8 to roughly 10 came through a slow grind, not a break, and that is how the rest is likely to come too.

Anchor 2 · Price-to-rent

A government bond now out-earns the typical rented condo

Rents have stopped falling quickly. September had the biggest monthly gain among Canada's six largest rental markets, and the smallest annual decline since late 2023. That helps landlords. It does not fix the investment math, because the problem is the price and the cost of borrowing.

$2,741

Average asking rent, apartments and condos (Rentals.ca, Sept.)

$2,373

One-bedroom asking rent

3.7%

Purpose-built vacancy, highest since 1988 (CMHC, Oct. 2025)

1.5%

Rented-condo vacancy, up from 0.8% (CMHC, Oct. 2025)

Yields vs. the cost of money

Big-bank 5-yr fixed
5.09%
Condo gross yield
4.6%
5-yr Government of Canada bond
3.6%
Condo net yield
2.7%

The bond pays more, with no tenant, strata or vacancy. At one of the region's largest presale marketers, investors were about half of buyers from 2020 to 2023. By early 2025 they were 7%.

One benchmark condo, rented out, each month

Rent
$2,600
Operating costs
−$1,058
Net operating income
$1,542
Mortgage payment
−$3,204
Monthly shortfall
−$1,662

Illustration, not every unit: $682,500 apartment benchmark, 20% down, 5.09% over 25 years; costs cover strata, tax, insurance, upkeep, 4% vacancy and 8% management. To break even, the unit would need to sell for roughly half its price, or rent for about 70% more.

So who sets condo prices now? End users: first-time buyers and downsizers. Their limit isn't yield. It's what the bank will lend them. That is why the condo floor depends so heavily on interest rates and the mortgage stress test.

Coulombe View

03

If your investment case requires the next buyer to accept a worse yield than you did, you are not valuing the asset. You are valuing momentum.

That worked when borrowing was cheap and rents climbed every year. Today a government bond out-earns the typical rented condo. Until lower prices, lower rates or higher rents change that, the investor buyer isn't coming back, and condos have to clear at end-user prices.

Anchor 3 · Replacement cost

The floor is working: building has nearly stopped

When resale prices fall close to the cost of building new, projects stop. We flagged this floor in spring. It is now happening at a scale not seen in modern times.

Metro Vancouver condo presales, typical quarter (10-yr average)~4,000
Condo presales, Q2 202662

Drawn to scale. Presale figures as cited by Wesgroup's Beau Jarvis.

0

New concrete condo launches in Q1 2026, against 152 a year earlier (Zonda).

−40%

Condo starts in the first half of 2026, the weakest since 2011.

4,376

Completed, unsold new condos in May, a record and up 76% in a year (CMHC).

What it costs to build, per sq. ft.

Construction typeHard costAll-in delivered
Concrete high-rise$360–$455~$700–$950
Six-storey wood-frame$275–$365~$550–$750
Low-rise ground-oriented$225–$310~$450–$650

Based on Altus Group 2026 cost benchmarks. All-in includes land, fees and charges, financing and builder margin. Costs eased slightly, mostly in towers few are starting; not enough to change the picture. Some lenders report appraisals on completing presales coming in 10% to 30% below contract.

Two stories on two clocks

2026–2027: the glut. Thousands of finished, unsold condos compete with resale right now. Builders are offering incentives quietly rather than cutting list prices.

2029–2030: the gap. Condos take three to four years from presale to completion. Almost nothing sold in 2026 means very few new units arriving later. CMHC already says Vancouver builds 5,000 to 7,000 fewer homes a year than it needs.

What it doesn't mean: that prices must rise soon. The shortage is a 2029 story.

Anchor 4 · Peer cities

Vancouver and Toronto led the world's price declines this year

UBS's 2026 Global Real Estate Bubble Index puts both cities at moderate risk. After inflation, each fell roughly 10% over the past year, the steepest drops among the 23 cities tracked. Cities flagged as high-risk in 2021, Vancouver included, have since averaged real drawdowns of nearly 20% from their peaks.

Sydney

A constrained coastal city can stay extremely unaffordable for years.

Toronto

Our closest comparison: a similar real decline as condo investors left.

Auckland

Real resets happen when rates rise and investors pull back at once.

Seattle

What an expensive city looks like when local incomes do more of the work.

Where the four anchors point now

Income: still stretched, slowly improving.

Rent: steadier, but no help to investors.

Replacement cost: the floor is real and already working.

Peer cities: corrections like this tend to be long, not sharp.

Together: a market that is hard to break, but still has further to adjust, slowly.

Coulombe View

04

The better question isn't "is it overvalued?" It is: overvalued against which anchor, and how much does that anchor matter for this property?

Ask the income question of a detached home and you can end up too bearish. Ask the replacement-cost question of an investor condo and you can end up too bullish. Match the anchor to the buyer who will actually set the next price.

Rates

The tailwind became a headwind

In spring the question was when cuts would come. Now it's how many hikes. On Oct. 28 the Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50%, its first hike since 2023, to keep high energy prices from spreading into broader inflation, and said it may need to go further. Most economists in a Reuters poll taken before the decision expect 2.75% by the end of March. Fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields, which have already moved.

Bank of Canada rate

2.25% → 2.50%

Raised Oct. 28. The Bank says a further increase may be needed; most economists polled expect 2.75% by March.

5-year bond yield

~3.6%

Up from about 2.75% a year ago.

Big-bank 5-year fixed

~5.0%

About half a point higher than in April.

Buying power fell as far as prices did (index, start = 100)

100
85
100
86
Max purchase, 2021
~$930KMax purchase, today
~$790KComposite peak
Apr. 2022Composite
Sept. 2026

Illustrative household: $150,000 income, 20% down, 25-year mortgage, qualified at the higher of 5.25% or the contract rate plus 2%. A further half-point rise would cut the maximum to about $755,000. That match is not a coincidence.

Who feels it most

First-time condo buyers. They now set condo prices, at the edge of what they can qualify for. Every increase lowers what they can pay.

Presale buyers completing now. Many signed at 2022–2024 prices. A low appraisal means covering the gap in cash.

Owners renewing 2021 mortgages. Many renew at more than twice the rate. Most can manage, with less room for error if jobs weaken.

Detached buyers with large equity are the most cushioned, one reason detached sales have held up.

Demand, supply and policy

Fewer newcomers, softer jobs, a council in transition

Fewer people

B.C.'s population fell about 0.7% in 2025, its first annual drop on record, and kept falling into 2026 as temporary residents leave. Renters feel this first, which shows up in condo investor returns.

Softer jobs

B.C. lost 20,000 jobs in September, mostly in construction and manufacturing. Metro Vancouver employment held roughly flat; Vancouver's unemployment rate is 6.5%.

Less confidence

September sales were 25% below the 10-year average. Central 1's chief economist now sees the resale recovery slipping to 2027.

Zoning allows more; economics decides

Multiplex rules and transit-area density expand what could be built. Builders still need buyers above their costs, and for condos those buyers aren't there.

Rental is what's being built

Rental apartments are now about 60% of Vancouver housing starts, up from under 20% in 2016. That keeps adding rental supply for years.

A new city council

October's election produced a new mayor and a council focused on renters and affordability. Some proposals could make building harder. The direction will clarify through 2027.

Scenarios · next 24 to 36 months

Most likely: a slow grind, then a floor

No forecast deserves certainty. Scenarios show what would need to happen for each path. Updated for October 2026.

Composite benchmark by late 2028 to 2029. Probability-weighted, that is about 7% below today in dollars and roughly 14% lower after inflation.

Bear · 35%

Rate shock meets weak jobs

Composite down another 10% to 18%. Condos fall 15% to 25%; detached and townhomes 8% to 15%. A deeper, longer correction led by condos, not a crash.

  • Several hikes, toward 3% or higher
  • 5-year fixed above 5.5%
  • Vancouver unemployment above 7.5%
  • Low appraisals and unsold condos force discounted sales
Base · 50%

Slow grind, then a floor

Composite drifts down 3% to 8% over 12 to 18 months, then flattens. After inflation, values fall 10% to 15% over three years.

  • Townhomes steady first: family demand, almost no new supply
  • Detached follows: land and equity limit the downside
  • Condos lag longest, settling as unsold inventory clears through 2027
Bull · 15%

The supply gap arrives early

Composite recovers 3% to 8%, led by townhomes and detached. Even then, affordability caps how far condos can run.

  • Oil shock fades; inflation back below 3%
  • The Bank reverses and cuts
  • 5-year fixed below 4.5%
  • Buyers start pricing the 2029–2030 shortage

The biggest change this year: the bottom has moved further out in time. In spring, a floor in 2027 looked likely. Late 2027 to 2028 is now more realistic.

What this could mean for prices

A range per property type, not a number

A forecast that says prices will fall exactly 12% sounds precise but ages badly. These bands are real, meaning after inflation, in today's dollars, and describe where long-run fundamentals would likely put prices. With inflation near 2.5%, a 12% real decline over five years looks like flat prices on paper.

−30%−20%−10%0

Detached · $1,784,700 today · real support, still above fundamentals

2 years
$1.53M–$1.68M
5 years
$1.39M–$1.57M

Townhomes · $1,016,700 today · the middle path

2 years
$895K–$966K
5 years
$834K–$915K

Investor condos · $682,500 today · most exposed, furthest to go

2 years
$560K–$614K
5 years
$478K–$546K

Detached: −6% to −14% over two years, −12% to −22% over five, roughly back to 2016–2017 pricing after inflation. Our spring ranges were wider; prices have already travelled part of the way.

Townhomes: −5% to −12%, then −10% to −18%, roughly 2017–2018 pricing. Best placed when the new-supply gap arrives, since almost none are being built for sale.

Condos: −10% to −18%, then −20% to −30%, roughly mid-2010s pricing. Smaller units in older buildings have the least support. TD Economics sees a bottom around mid-2027, about 15% below the 2023 peak.

Signposts to watch

What would tip it toward bear or bull

IndicatorTodayPoints to bearPoints to bull
Bank of Canada rate2.50%3.0%+ by mid-2027Back below 2.25%
Big-bank 5-year fixed~5.0%Above 5.5%Below 4.5%
Share of listings selling10.9%Below 10% for three monthsAbove 15%
Listings vs. 10-year average+24%Above +30%Back to normal
Vancouver unemployment6.5%Above 7.5%Below 6%
Asking rents, year over yearSmall decline, narrowingBack to −5% or worseRising again
Completed, unsold new condos4,376Above 5,000Below 3,000

Next big data point: CMHC's rental vacancy survey in December.

Coulombe View

05

The luck already happened. Price for the world as it is, not the world you wish would come back.

From 2010 to 2021, Vancouver had ultra-low rates, fast population growth and buyers willing to pay for future appreciation before the numbers made sense. None of those three is helping now. Rough is not the same as broken, but it means patience, not hope, gets a market to its floor.

What this means for you

A long, uneven adjustment. What you own matters more than usual.

Homes bought to live in, with equity behind them, are holding up best. Homes bought for rental income at maximum leverage are under the most pressure.

If you own

Know your segment and who your next buyer is. For a condo, that's a first-time buyer limited by the stress test, not an investor.

If you're selling

Price to today's buyers, not last year's comparables. When prices slip half a percent a month, waiting has a cost.

If you're buying

The market doesn't need to crash for better entry points to appear. Selectivity and time are on your side, especially in condos.

If you're watching

Vancouver is structurally expensive, still adjusting and very different by property type. One headline won't capture it.

Want to know where your home sits in this?

Bring an address or a question. We'll look at your segment, your likely next buyer and your timing together.

Eric Coulombe · Real Estate Advisor

Engel & Völkers Vancouver

eric@ericcoulombe.com · 604-764-8620

Ask about your home →All market insight

Appendix

Method, limits and sources

Method and limits

Prices are Greater Vancouver Realtors MLS® Home Price Index benchmarks for the Metro Vancouver board area, September 2026, unless noted. A benchmark is the board's estimate of a typical home in each category, adjusted for the mix sold.

Scenarios and probabilities are Eric Coulombe's judgment. They combine the four valuation anchors with current rate, jobs, population and supply data. They are not statistical predictions.

Real means adjusted for inflation. "Today's dollars" converts a real change to a price at today's level.

Illustrations (the condo investor math and buying power) use stated assumptions and will differ for any specific property or household. Buying power assumes a 39% gross debt service limit and about $450 a month for property tax and heat.

This report is general market commentary, not personal financial, legal or tax advice.

Sources
  1. Greater Vancouver Realtors, September 2026 statistics package. https://members.gvrealtors.ca/news/GVR-Stats-Package-September-2026.pdf
  2. Greater Vancouver Realtors, 2026 second-half residential forecast. https://economics.gvrealtors.ca/posts/2026-08-25-Residential-Forecast-2026-H2/2026-08-25-Residential-Forecast-2026-H2.html
  3. Reuters poll on the Oct. 28 Bank of Canada decision (Oct. 23, 2026), via Investing.com. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/bank-of-canada-to-raise-rates-to-250-on-october-28-and-once-again-by-endmarch-reuters-poll-4970116
  4. Bank of Canada, policy interest rate. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/
  5. Bank of Canada, interest rate announcement, Oct. 28, 2026. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/10/fad-press-release-2026-10-28/
  6. Reuters: Bank of Canada raises key interest rate, says another hike possible (Oct. 28, 2026), via BNN Bloomberg. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/10/28/bank-of-canada-raises-key-interest-rate-says-another-hike-possible/
  7. Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, September 2026. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/261019/dq261019a-eng.htm
  8. Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, September 2026. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/261009/dq261009a-eng.htm
  9. CREA, Vancouver employment trends (LFS data). https://creastats.crea.ca/board/vanc-employment-trends/
  10. Bryan Yu, Central 1: B.C. labour market and housing recovery, Times Colonist. https://www.timescolonist.com/economy-law-politics/bryan-yu-bc-labour-market-softens-as-housing-recovery-slips-to-2027-12917833
  11. NerdWallet Canada, big-bank mortgage rates, Oct. 2026. https://www.nerdwallet.com/ca/p/best/mortgages/current-mortgage-rates
  12. Demographia International Housing Affordability, 2026 edition. http://demographia.com/dhi.pdf
  13. UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026. https://www.ubs.com/global/en/media/display-page-ndp/en-20260922-grebi26.html
  14. Rentals.ca and Urbanation September report, via Daily Hive. https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/bc-vancouver-rent-increase
  15. CMHC, 2025 Rental Market Report. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/rental-market-reports-major-centres
  16. CMHC, Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-supply-report
  17. CMHC unabsorbed condo data, May 2026, via Castanet. https://www.castanetkamloops.net/news/Metro-Vancouver/620414/Unabsorbed-condos-at-record-levels-in-Metro-Vancouver-CMHC
  18. Vancouver Real Estate Podcast, presales with Wesgroup's Beau Jarvis. https://www.vancouverrealestatepodcast.com/podcast/vrep-530-from-4000-metro-vancouver-presales-a-quarter-to-62/
  19. Zonda data on Q1 2026 presale launches. https://presaleproperties.com/blog/bc-presale-pipeline-freeze-roundup-july-2026
  20. Altus Group, 2026 Cost Guide insights. https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/caution-in-2026-optimistic-for-2027-cost-guide-insights/
  21. EstateBlock, condo market data (TD forecast, investor share, appraisals). https://www.estateblock.com/blog/vancouver-condo-market/
  22. BC Stats, quarterly population highlights. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/data/statistics/people-population-community/population/quarterly_population_highlights.pdf
  23. 2026 Vancouver municipal election. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vancouver_municipal_election
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