Investing › Building a portfolio · October 2026 · 12-minute read · New to this? Start here

One contribution, fifteen years

One house, fifteen years

What happens if you buy one suited house in Fort St. John, put money in once, and never add another dollar? Here it is three ways: spend the cash flow, spend half, or reinvest it all.

In plain English

About C$152,000 buys one rental house, sets it up and keeps a cash cushion. Your tenants pay the mortgage down, the house gains value, and every five years you can borrow against that growth for the next house. Over 15 years, on my standard assumptions, that one contribution grows to roughly C$1.07–1.48 million. With zero growth in prices it still reaches about C$0.55–0.85 million.

See the three paths ↓ Request the full model

C$152KIn once: 20% down, closing costs and setup on a C$565,000 suited house, plus a C$15,000 reserve

C$1.07–1.48MTotal value at Year 15 in the base case, after selling costs and before tax, depending on the path

C$420KThe same C$152,000 in an index fund returning 7% a year, for comparison

The ground rules

Money goes in once. Nothing else, ever.

Most projections quietly assume you keep adding savings. This one doesn't. Every house after the first is paid for by equity the first one built and rent it earned.

What goes in, at Year 0

C$152,125

C$113,000 down (20%), about C$14,125 in closing costs, about C$10,000 to set the house up for its manager, and a C$15,000 cash reserve that's never spent on a purchase. Every return on this page is measured on the full amount.

What never goes in

No top-ups

No more savings, no second lump sum, no help from your salary, and no cash injection when a tenant leaves or a furnace fails. Add outside money and the results here would come sooner and be larger.

The starting house

The same house as every page on this site

A newer house with a legal suite in Fort St. John, bought at C$565,000 with an 80% mortgage at 5% over 30 years.

C$5,085Rent a month for both units (0.9% of price)

C$1,025Left over a month in year one, after vacancy, every cost and the mortgage

1.42×Rent after costs covers the mortgage 1.42 times

~28%Year-one return on your C$137,000: cash flow, mortgage paydown and 3.5% value growth

The full working is on Leverage, explained. Real houses vary: some earn more, some less. Setup means furnishings, new locks and bringing the house to the manager’s standard: usually C$5,000–15,000, less if it rents unfurnished. Furnished rents can run higher, but that’s a small, cyclical niche in Fort St. John, and these numbers don’t count on it.

How one house becomes several

Every five years, the house can fund the next down payment

Tenants pay down the loanAbout C$6,700 of principal in year one, rising every year, none of it from your pocket.
The house gains valueAt 3.5% a year, the C$565,000 house is worth about C$671,000 by its first renewal.
At each 5-year renewal, refinanceBorrow back up to 75% of the new value, but only if the rent still covers the bigger mortgage at least 1.35 times, and still covers it at a rate two points higher. No break penalties, no refinancing mid-term.
Buy only when it passesThe next house must cover its own mortgage 1.25 times on day one, and every house keeps its own C$15,000 reserve untouched. If either test fails, the cash waits.

When each path buys its next house

Only when the numbers pass the tests above. Dashed lines mark the five-year renewals.

Spend it all

2 houses

Spend half

2 houses

Reinvest it all

1234

4 houses

Year 051015

Your first house
Houses the first one helped pay for

These rules slow the engine down on purpose. They're why no path below ever has a year where the rent fails to cover the mortgage.

The choice that shapes the outcome

Spend it, split it, or reinvest it

Same C$152,000, same house, same 15 years, values rising 3.5% a year. The only difference is what you do with the monthly cash flow.

	Spend it all	Spend half	Reinvest it all
Houses at Year 15	2	2	4
Bought in years	0, 10	0, 10	0, 7, 10, 13
Cash taken out along the way	C$297K	C$149K	—
Net worth at Year 15, after selling	C$770K	C$963K	C$1.48M
Total value at Year 15	C$1.07M	C$1.11M	C$1.48M
Multiple on your C$152,000	7.0×	7.3×	9.7×
Annual return (IRR)	17.5%	15.8%	16.4%
Cash flow a month in Year 15	C$2,830	C$2,830	C$5,225
Loan-to-value at Year 15	60%	60%	63%

Before tax. Net worth = equity after 3.3% selling costs plus cash on hand; total value adds everything you took out. Reinvest it all also ends with about C$220,000 in cash waiting for the next house that passes the tests. Same money in an index fund at 7%: about C$420,000. In a 60/40 portfolio at 4.5%: about C$294,000.

How it builds

Slow for years, then it compounds

The paths stay close for the first seven years. Reinvesting buys its second house in year 7, then two more; the small dips are each new house’s closing and setup costs.

Total value each year, in thousands of dollars: after-sale equity, plus cash in reserve, plus cash taken out. Base case, values rising 3.5% a year.

Read the right number

A similar return rate, very different ending wealth

All three paths earn about 16–17.5% a year, and spending actually scores highest, because money in your hand sooner counts for more. What separates them is when you take the money. Spending it all puts about C$297,000 in your pocket along the way, starting at about C$12,300 in year one, and still buys a second house in year 10. Reinvesting it all ends about 39% higher, with nearly twice the monthly income.

Neither is the right answer. Spend the fruit, or plant an orchard: most people do some of each, growing until the income reaches their number, then living on it. Income now, or a bigger engine later →

The upside

If Fort St. John's prices catch up

Fort St. John sits at 0.84 times Prince George's average price, down from 1.5 times in 2014. With LNG Canada Phase 2 approved and Ottawa and Victoria aligned behind it, a catch-up is credible. I don't underwrite it, but it shouldn't be overlooked either.

If values rise about 5.3% a year (parity with Prince George by Year 10)	Total value	Annual return	vs base
Spend it all, one house	C$1,187,000	18.0%	+C$120,000
Spend half	C$1,227,000	16.5%	+C$115,000
Reinvest it all	C$1,501,000	16.5%	+C$21,000

The catch-up mostly rewards holding. Faster price growth also makes the next house dearer relative to its rent, so the reinvest path buys two houses instead of four and ends only slightly ahead, with far less debt (47% loan-to-value). Holding gains the most. If prices run ahead of rents, I'd expect to hold and harvest, not buy more.

The honest part

No price growth, and a real downturn

A model that only tests good outcomes is marketing. These are the same four cases I use on every page. Total value at Year 15, with the annual return in brackets.

Scenario	Spend it all	Spend half	Reinvest it all
Upside: Fort St. John catches up to Prince George (about 5.3% a year)	C$1.19M (18.0%)	C$1.23M (16.5%)	C$1.50M (16.5%)
Base: values rise 3.5% a year	C$1.07M (17.5%)	C$1.11M (15.8%)	C$1.48M (16.4%)
No price growth for 15 years	C$548K (13.0%)	C$686K (12.5%)	C$848K (12.1%)
Downturn: values down about 10%, 10% vacancy for four years, costs up 10%, renewals at 7%	C$451K (9.6%)	C$479K (8.9%)	C$589K (9.4%)

A downturn stalls the engine

Refinancing stops for years and growth slows, but you finish at about C$451,000–589,000, still ahead of an index fund, without ever adding money or selling into the fall.

The margin is the protection

In the downturn’s worst year, rent still covers the mortgage 1.22 times. That cushion is why I won’t buy below 1.25 times: less growth in a bad patch, but no strain.

Flat prices still work

With no growth at all, tenants' paydown and rent still turn C$152,000 into C$548,000–848,000. The reinvest path ends at 73% loan-to-value, so flat prices are where its leverage runs highest.

Downturn: values fall 5% in each of years 2 and 3, then flat to year 5, then 2% a year; vacancy 10% in years 2–5, then 5%. In a severe downturn (values down 16%, 20% vacancy for three years, renewals at 8%) the rent only just covers the mortgage for a few years, the reserve absorbs the bumps, and the 15-year return falls to about 5.7% a year. That is the case the reserve and the coverage rules exist for.

What can break it

Three risks worth naming

One town, one industryEnergy towns go through cycles, and vacancies and values can fall together. So: houses that pay their way at higher vacancy, and a reserve that's never spent on a purchase.
Borrowing and lendersRenewal rates aren't guaranteed, and banks count only part of your rent, so borrowing room shrinks with each house. So: coverage tests before every refinance and purchase, and a lender plan arranged before it's needed.
The house and the managerThese numbers assume a newer house, well bought, with good local management. An average house won't produce them. So: every property goes through the same tests I use for my own, and you hire a manager I trust and run that relationship yourself.

Where to next

Understand itHow it worksOne house in year one, what owning is really like, and how we'd work together.Start here →Go deeperFort St. John investor briefWhy this town, what's driving it, and the same house under four scenarios.Read the brief →Take a stepRequest the full modelYear-by-year numbers for every path and scenario, sent personally.Ask for it →

Next step

Want this run on your own numbers?

A 30-minute call: your capital, your timeline, and whether you'd rather spend the fruit or plant the orchard. If it isn't a fit, I'll say so.

Book a 30-minute call →Call or text 604-764-8620

Assumptions. One C$565,000 newer suited house to start; rent 0.9% of price a month, rising 2.5% a year; 3% vacancy; running costs 30% of collected rent (management, taxes, insurance, maintenance; my own 2026 statements run 29–33% on furnished houses, which also pay utilities), rising 3% a year; 80% purchase loans at 5.0% over 30 years on 5-year terms; 2.5% closing costs; about C$10,000 of setup per house (furnishings, locks, bringing it to the manager’s standard), rising with prices; C$4,000 per refinance; values rising 3.5% a year in the base case; each new house bought at the then-current price with rent at 0.9% of the original price grown with rents; refinancing only at renewal, to at most 75% of value, if rent covers the new payment 1.35 times and 1.0 times at a rate two points higher; new purchases only at 1.25 times coverage; a reserve of about C$15,000 a house (three to four months of mortgage and running costs) held at 2.4%, and other cash at 4.5%; 3.3% selling costs at Year 15. The catch-up case raises value growth to about 5.3% a year: Fort St. John reaching 1.0 times Prince George's average price by Year 10 if Prince George rises 3.5%.

Not included. Income tax on rent, capital gains tax and CCA recapture, extended vacancy, major uninsured repairs, and changes to lending rules. Figures are nominal: at 2.5% inflation, C$1.48 million in Year 15 is worth about C$1.0 million today. Equity is illiquid until a house is sold or refinanced.

Illustrative model, not a forecast, an appraisal or a recommendation on any property. Past performance doesn't predict future results; cash flow can turn negative and capital can be lost. For tax, structure and the rest of your financial plan, talk to an independent financial adviser and your accountant. I'm a licensed real estate advisor with Engel & Völkers Vancouver and earn a commission when clients buy or sell through me, including purchases made under this strategy.

Eric Coulombe

Engel & Völkers Vancouver (Kerrisdale)

Give me a call

Cell: 604-764-8620 Office: 778-374-3020

eric@ericcoulombe.com

Location

2126 W. 41st Ave.

Vancouver, BC, V6M 1Z1